Global Climate Models (GCMs) are tools used to project how climate conditions may change in the future.
Ensemble: A collection of climate model simulations that use slightly different starting conditions to produce a range of plausible future climate outcomes. Ensembles help show the natural variability and uncertainty in climate projections and can support planning and decision-making.
Scenarios: Climate scenarios describe different possible future climate conditions based on changes in temperature, precipitation, snow, and other climate factors. Each scenario represents a different combination of projected climate conditions and can be used with ensemble data to explore a range of potential impacts.
Hot & Smokey: Represents a warmer mid-century future, with global temperatures increasing by approximately 5.4°F (3°C). This scenario is characterized by more frequent hot conditions and a significant increase in smoky summer days. Precipitation remains highly variable, while warmer temperatures can cause earlier snowmelt, increased evaporation, and reduced late-summer water availability. Rain-on-snow events and rapid spring snowmelt may also increase flood risk.
Warm Refuge: Represents a moderately warmer mid-century future, with global temperatures increasing by approximately 3.6°F (2°C) above late-19th-century temperatures. Warmer conditions combined with slightly lower precipitation increase the likelihood of low-snow years. Earlier snowmelt and rain-on-snow events may affect the timing and availability of water and increase the potential for flooding.
Shrinking Snowpack: Represents a warmer mid-century future, with global temperatures increasing by approximately 3.6°F (2°C) above late-19th-century temperatures. Although precipitation increases slightly, warmer temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, particularly during the fall and spring. This results in a greater likelihood of low-snow years and a declining snowpack, which can shift the timing of water availability and increase pressure on late-season water supplies.
Different scenarios can be selected to compare projected climate conditions and understand how impacts may change under different levels of future warming.